By Pete Schroeder
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – With Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris locked in a dead heat in the race for the White House, political forecasters will be eyeing a clutch of counties across the country for clues on who has the edge once polls start to close on Tuesday evening.
Here is a list of bellwether counties Reuters compiled, based on research by UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Beacon Policy Advisors in Washington and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
The list, which is not exhaustive, includes the most pivotal counties in the seven battleground “swing” states that will determine the winner.
ARIZONA
Arizona’s Maricopa County, home to 4.5 million people — over half of the state’s population — is seen as one of the most pivotal battlegrounds across the United States, both for the presidency and the Senate.
Biden in 2020 was the first Democrat to win the county since President Harry Truman in 1948, according to Beacon, and a strong performance by Harris would bode extremely well for her in the swing state.
Polls there close at 9 p.m. ET (0100 GMT), but the state does not begin reporting results until one hour after all precincts have reported.
Election officials have warned it could take up to 13 days to tabulate all the ballots in Maricopa, according to local media reports. In 2020, the Associated Press and Fox News called the state for Biden hours after polls closed, but other outlets waited nine days to declare him the winner.
FLORIDA
With Trump holding a near double-digit lead over Harris in Florida polls, the Sunshine State is not a battleground. But politicos will be watching Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, which is also expected to report results relatively early after polls close there at 7 p.m. ET.
The county was solidly Democrat from the 2008 election cycle through to 2016, when Hillary Clinton won it by 30 points, but by 2020 Biden only had a seven-point edge.
As such, it’s seen as a critical county for Harris. Further erosion of support for the Vice President in the Miami area, particularly among Hispanic voters, could spell broader trouble for her, according to Beacon.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the U.S. dollar reacted strongly to that weaker Democratic Miami-Dade result in 2020, as investors raised their bets on a potential Trump win.
GEORGIA
Georgia’s DeKalb and Gwinnett counties are also seen as bellwethers for Democrats’ performance in the state. Biden built strong margins in the two urban counties, helping him narrowly win the swing state in 2020.
Analysts also point to nearby Cobb County, where Democrats have been gaining votes over the last two presidential elections and which may indicate how well Harris is performing with suburban voters, a key voting bloc.
Polls close in Georgia at 7 p.m. ET but early-vote counting starts at 7 a.m. ET, meaning the state could post results faster than some other battlegrounds.
MICHIGAN
Saginaw County has backed the candidate who went on to win the state in every presidential race since 2008, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Biden narrowly won the state in 2020.
UBS and Morgan Stanley also flagged Wayne County, which includes most of the Detroit metro area, as another critical Michigan county. Biden won Wayne by roughly two-to-one votes in 2020, but if Trump improves his margins there it could bode well for the former president in the swing state.
Most polls in Michigan close at 8 p.m. ET, and the state has adopted policies since the 2020 election that should speed up vote counting.
NEVADA
In Nevada, which was won by Biden by less than 3 percentage points in 2020, Clark County is the heavyweight with more than half the state’s population, including the Las Vegas area. For Trump to win Nevada, he has to minimize Democratic votes in the county.
Washoe County, home to Reno and Nevada’s second most populous county, is also one to watch in the swing state, said analysts. Republicans are hoping to eat into Democratic margins there as well.
Nevada polls close at 10 p.m. ET, although much of the state is expected to vote by mail, which could delay some results.
NORTH CAROLINA
Democrats have not won a presidential race in North Carolina since President Barack Obama in 2008, but close polling has made it a swing state in 2024. Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, which host North Carolina’s biggest cities and have become Democratic strongholds, are the ones to watch, said Beacon analysts. Harris would have to run up large margins there to win back the state.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also flagged suburban Cabarrus County, which neighbors Charlotte, as another county to keep an eye on. While Trump won Cabarrus in 2020, his margin slipped by 10 percentage points in 2016, the biggest swing away from him in the state.
Polls in North Carolina close at 7:30 p.m. ET, and state officials can begin tabulating early votes at 5 p.m. ET.
PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylvania ultimately handed Biden the presidency four days after Election Day in 2020, and is widely seen as a critical state for both candidates in 2024. UBS analysts say a good bellwether for which way the state will go is Erie County, a working-class area that Trump won in 2016 and Biden narrowly took in 2020.
Analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball also flagged Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, Biden’s birthplace. Lackawanna is another working-class county, but in contrast to Erie it has trended Republican in recent years. A strong turnout for Trump there could suggest a robust performance statewide.
Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8 p.m. ET, and state officials cannot begin processing early ballots until 7 a.m. ET, which could slow results — several other swing states allow for ballot processing weeks before Election Day.
WISCONSIN
In 2020, Biden won over 75% of the vote in Wisconsin’s Dane County, and Harris would likewise have to lock in a large block of support there to take the state. Waukesha County, once a Republican stronghold that has drifted towards Democrats in recent elections, is another on analysts’ watchlist.
Polls in Wisconsin close at 9pm ET, although analysts caution results could be slow as early ballots are processed on Election Day, and votes from Milwaukee sometimes are not reported until early the following morning.
(Reporting by Pete Schroeder; editing by Michelle Price and Deepa Babington)
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