By Naveen Thukral, Ella Cao and Mei Mei Chu
SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese soybean processors have turned to competitively priced Brazilian cargoes instead of U.S. oilseeds, amid fears Washington will impose import tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Worries about revived trade tensions during Trump’s second administration have already disrupted trade flows to China, the world’s biggest agricultural goods importer, prompting buyers to stockpile inventories and seek alternative suppliers.
Chinese processors have secured nearly all of their cargoes from Brazil for first quarter shipment, according to three trade sources.
Last year, Brazil accounted for 54% of Chinese first quarter soybean imports, while the U.S. supplied 38%. China takes more than 60% of the soybeans shipped worldwide.
“Chinese crushers are now booking Brazilian cargoes for February and March shipment,” said a trader in Singapore. “Both state-owned and private crushers, all of them are taking Brazilian beans. It is a 100% shift to Brazil.”
Trump has threatened tariffs of 10% to 60% on goods from China, which would probably prompt retaliatory Chinese duties on U.S. farm products.
In 2018, during Trump’s first term, the U.S. and China engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs that led Beijing to take permanent steps to reduce its reliance on American farm goods.
The share of China’s soybean imports from the United States dropped to 18% in the first 11 months of 2024, from 40% in the whole of 2016, while Brazil’s share grew to 74% from 46%, according to Chinese customs data.
South American soybeans, which are harvested early in the year, dominate the global trade until U.S. supplies enter the market from August.
But this year Chinese oilseed importers have turned to Brazilian beans more quickly and en masse, hitting U.S. suppliers towards the end of their peak marketing season in January.
This is likely to leave the U.S., the No.2 soybean exporter after Brazil, with 10.34 million metric tons of beans by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year in August, the highest in five years, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.
CHEAPER BEANS
The competitive price of Brazilian soybeans is a key draw for Chinese importers, traders said.
“Concerns over potential trade tensions, especially after Trump’s re-election, led to increased soybean purchases in Q4 2024, with shipments arriving in late 2024 and Q1 2025,” said Lin Guofa, a senior analyst at Bric Agriculture Group, a consultancy.
“Favourable weather in Brazil and the depreciation of the real have lowered production costs, encouraging further soybean imports,” Lin added.
The spread between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans has widened amid expectations of a record crop in the South American country.
Soybeans from Brazil are being priced at $420 per ton, including cost and freight, to China for February, while U.S Pacific Northwest cargoes are at around $451 per ton.
However, ample domestic supplies are likely to cap soybean demand, traders said.
China’s first quarter soybean imports are expected to fall to 17.3-18.0 million metric tons, from 18.58 million tons a year ago, according to the average of estimates from four analysts.
“The main reason was due to an oversupply of imported soybeans in 2024, and everyone is now waiting for the new Brazilian crops to arrive,” said a Shanghai-based analyst, declining to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.
China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of soybeans in 2024.
While private buyers turn to Brazilian supplies, traders said state stockpiler Sinograin is still in the market for U.S. soybeans, which are preferred for stockpiling due to their higher oil content.
(Reporting by Naveen Thukral, Ella Cao and Mei Mei Chu; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
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