A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan
It’s too soon to say “Salud” but the week begins with somewhat conciliatory messages from U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs, coming right after the Fed’s cheery assessment of the economy.
The S&P 500 futures are up after a light gain on Friday when Trump hinted at flexibility. But after a roller-coaster first two months in power – including tariff hits on China, Mexico and Canada – traders are shy about betting that Trump is ready to cut deals.
Trump said that he planned to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that the U.S. trade chief would speak with his Chinese counterpart this week.
U.S. Republican Senator Steve Daines and heads of several foreign firms including Apple and Pfizer met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Sunday and were assured of the country’s business potential.
Monday will see the release of global purchasing managers index (PMI) gauges, probably validating the sudden fiscal policy-spurred impetus for the German, French and other European economies.
And, in weekend news, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. hopes to reach a Russia-Ukraine truce agreement by April 20, while Trump said efforts to temper the conflict were “somewhat under control”.
Yet, despite all that, markets remain hung up on Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs on trading partner countries.
By latest accounts, tariffs are imminent and effective immediately, particularly on the 15% of countries that have the highest tariffs and large trading volumes with the U.S., which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent refers to as the “Dirty 15”.
The European Union is in a placatory mood and has delayed its first counter-measures against the United States until mid-April.
That means the 50% tariffs on U.S. bourbon, wine, toilet paper and other goods are under review.
France and Italy, the largest exporters of wine to the United States, are keen to avoid a trade war, as is Prime Minister Micheal Martin of whiskey-exporter Ireland, who was pleased Europe has decided to “wisely and strategically respond”.
Besides PMIs, the rest of the week holds the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation reading, inflation data in Australia and Japan, a budget update in Britain and major earnings in China.
Fed officials said last week the U.S. economy was strong but backed a cautious policy approach due to economic uncertainty.
In emerging markets, Turkey’s lira is on a knife’s edge as the jailing of President Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival unsettles investors.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
SPEAKERS: Fed Governor Michael Barr, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey
EARNINGS: Hargreaves Lansdown PLC, Travis Perkins PLC
DATA: Flash PMIs for France, Germany, UK, Euro Zone
DEBT AUCTIONS: France – reopening of 3-month, 6-month and 1-year auctions, Germany -reopening of 3-month and 9-month government debt auctions
(By Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
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