(Reuters) – U.S. central bankers project more limited interest-rate cuts in 2025 than the full percentage point of reductions they delivered in 2024, given slower progress toward their 2% inflation goal, a still-strong labor market, and a lot of uncertainty over the potential impact of tax cuts, tariffs and other economic policies in Donald Trump’s second term as president.
Here is a look at comments from Fed policymakers since the last rate-setting decision, sorting them under the labels “dove” and “hawk” as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings, as best as can be figured. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates more quickly, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about rate cuts.
The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic. For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman,
Governor, Fed Chair, Governor,
permanent voter: permanent permanent voter:
“I think we can voter: “I think “We should be
afford to proceed we’re in a good cautious in
more cautiously place, but I considering
with further think from here changes to the
cuts.” Jan. 6, it’s a new phase policy rate as we
2025 and we’re going move toward a
to be cautious more neutral
about further setting…We
cuts.” Dec. 18, should also
2024 refrain from
prejudging the
incoming
administration’s
future policies.”
Jan. 9, 2025
Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Jeffrey Schmid,
Chicago Fed New York Fed Kansas City Fed
President, 2025 President, President, 2025
voter: “Is there permanent voter: “I am in
evidence of voter: “While I favor of
overheating of expect that adjusting policy
the economy? So disinflation gradually going
far, in recent will progress, forward and only
months, there is it will take in response to a
not a lot of time, and the sustained change
evidence.” Jan. process may well in the tone of
10, 2025 be the data.” Jan.
9, 2025
choppy. Monetary
policy is well
positioned to
keep the risks
to our goals in
balance.” Jan.
15, 2025
Philip Alberto Musalem,
Jefferson, Vice St. Louis Fed
Chair, permanent President, 2025
voter: No public voter: Since
comments on September, “the
monetary policy economic data
since Oct. 2024. came in
stronger…and the
inflation numbers
printed higher
than desired. So
I changed my
assessment of
risks.” Jan. 10,
2025
Michael Barr, Beth Hammack,
Vice Chair of Cleveland Fed
Supervision, President, 2026
permanent voter: voter: No public
No public comments on
comments on monetary policy
monetary policy since Dec. 2024.
since May 2024.
Christopher Lorie Logan,
Waller, Dallas Fed
Governor, President, 2026
permanent voter: voter: No public
“I believe that comments on
inflation will monetary policy
continue to make since Nov. 2024.
progress toward
our 2% goal over
the medium term
and that further
reductions will
be appropriate.”
Jan. 8, 2025
Adriana Kugler, Neel Kashkari,
Governor, Minneapolis Fed
permanent voter: President, 2026
“We are fully voter: No public
aware that we comments on
are not there monetary policy
yet – no one is since Nov. 2024.
popping
champagne
anywhere….And at
the same time
… we want the
unemployment
rate to stay
where it is.”
Jan. 4, 2025
Susan Collins, Thomas Barkin,
Boston Fed Richmond Fed
President, 2025 President, 2027
voter: “With an voter: The
economy that is December consumer
in a good place price index data
overall and “continues the
policy already story we have
closer to a more been on, which is
neutral stance, that inflation is
I view the coming down
current nature towards target.”
of uncertainty Jan. 15, 2025
as calling for a
gradual and
patient approach
to
policymaking.”
Jan. 9, 2025
Patrick Harker,
Philadelphia Fed
President, 2026
voter: “It’s
appropriate for
us to take a bit
of a pause right
now and see how
things shake
out.” Jan. 9,
2025
Raphael Bostic,
Atlanta Fed
President, 2027
voter: No public
comments on
monetary policy
since Dec. 2024.
Mary Daly, San
Francisco Fed
President, 2027
voter: “At this
point, I would
not want to see
further slowing
in the labor
market.” Jan. 4,
2025
Notes: Fed policymakers reduced the policy rate in December to the 4.25%-4.50% range. Projections showed most policymakers expect to cut rates by a half percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of this year, a smaller reduction than they saw in September.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chief and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Dec. ’24 0 2 10 7 0
Nov. ’24 0 0 13 5 0
Sept ’24 0 1 12 5 0
May through July ’24 0 1 10 6 1
March ’24 0 1 11 5 1
Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1
Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1
Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3
June ’23 0 3 3 8 3
March ’23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir, Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)
Comments